వందేళ్ల తరువాత చరిత్ర పునరావృతం అవుతుందా?

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  • వందేళ్ల తరువాత చరిత్ర పునరావృతం అవుతుందా?
  • భారత్ లో కరోనా కథ ఏ మలుపు తిరగబోతోంది?
  • 1911లో భారతదేశ జనాభా 31 కోట్లు ..
  • 1921లో కూడా 31 కోట్లే ..ఎలా?

కరోనా మహమ్మారి కంటి మీద కునుకు లేకుండా చేస్తోంది. అటు దేశంలో ఇటు రాష్ట్రంలో కోవిడ్ 19 స్వైర విహారం కొనసాగుతోంది. నిత్యం సరికొత్త రికార్డులు నమోదవుతున్నాయి. వేలల్లో ఉన్న కేసులు ఇప్పుడు లక్షల్లోకి మారాయి.. వందల్లోని మరణాలు వేలకు చేరాయి. తెలుగు రాష్ట్రాల్లో …ముఖ్యంగా తెలంగాణలో పెరుగుతున్న పాజిటివ్ కేసుల సంఖ్య తీవ్ర ఆందోళన కలిగిస్తోంది. ఇది ఇలాగే కొనసాగితే రాబోవు రోజుల్లో పరిస్థితి ఎలా ఉండబోతోందో అన్న ఆలోచనే వొళ్లు గగుర్పోడిచేలా చేస్తోంది.

కరోనా నివారణకు పూర్తి స్థాయి వ్యాక్సిన్ ఎప్పుడు అందుబాటులోకి వస్తుందో ఎవరికీ తెలియదు. ఇంకో వైపు కరోనా జెట్ స్పీడ్ లో జనం మీదకు ఎగబడుతోంది.. చివరకు ఇది ఎక్కడికి దారితీస్తుందో తెలియదు. ప్రస్తుత పరిస్థితుల్లో ఏ మాత్రం ఏమరపాటుగా వ్యవహరించినా కరోనా కాటు ఖాయం.

ఇదంతా ఎందుకు చెప్పాల్సి వస్తుందంటే ..దాదాపు ఇలాంటి ఆపదే మనకు దాదాపు వందేళ్ల క్రితం ఎదురైంది. ఇప్పుడైతే ఇన్ని జాగ్రత్తలు ఆరోగ్య వ్యవస్థలు ఉన్నాయి ..వైద్య పురోగతి ఉన్నాయి. కాని, వందేళ్ల క్రితం ఇవేవీ లేవు.. ఏదైనా వ్యాది ప్రబలితే కాటికే..అంతకు మించి వేరే మార్గంలేదు.. బలమైన రోగ నిరోధక శక్తి ఉన్న వారు మాత్రమే ఆనాడు బతికి బట్టకట్టారు. సరిగ్గా పరిస్థితి ఇప్పుడు కూడా అలాగే ఉంది. తగిన మందు అందుబాటులో లేనప్పుడు ఆ రోజైనా ..ఈ రోజైనా ఒక్కటే కదా… వైరస్ బారినపడిన వారిని దూరంగా ఉంచటం ..దూరంగా ఉండటం… అప్పుడు జరిగింది అదే…ఇప్పుడు జరుగుతున్నది కూడా అదే. అందుకే ఈ భయం.

ఈ సందర్భంలో నేను కొన్ని ఆసక్తికరమైన విషయాలు చెపుతాను…

1872 మొదటి జనాభా లెక్కల ప్రకారం భారతదేశ జనాభా 206,162,360. అంటే నేటి బంగ్లాదేశ్ పాకిస్తాన్ తో కూడిన అప్పటి ఉపఖండంలోని మొత్తం జనాభా కలసి 20.61 కోట్లు అన్నమాట. పదేళ్లకు ..అంటే 1881 లో ఇది 23% పెరిగి 25.38 కోట్లకు చేరుకుంది. దీనికి ప్రధాన కారణం జనాభా పెరుగుదల మాత్రమేగా, మరొక కారణం బ్రిటిష్ నియంత్రిత భూభాగంలో పెరుగుదల. ఇది సంవత్సరాలుగా విస్తరిస్తూనే ఉంది. అలా ముప్పయ్యేళ్ల తరువాత 1911 లో, జనాభా దశాబ్దంలో 7% పెరిగి 31 కోట్లకు చేరుకుంది. అయితే, 1921 లో, 10 సంవత్సరాల తరువాత కూడా జనాభా 31 కోట్లుగానే ఉంది.

ఒక దశాబ్దం మొత్తంలో జనాభా ఎందుకు పెరగలేదు? సమాధానం H1N1 వైరస్, దీనిని స్పానిష్ ఇన్ఫ్లుఎంజా అంటారు. ఇది కరోనావైరస్ వంటి అంటువ్యాధి. ఇది భారతదేశంలో ఒక దశాబ్దం మొత్తం జనాభా పెరుగుదలను చంపింది. సుమారు 1.5 కోట్ల మందికి పైగా దీని బారినపడి కన్నుమూశారు.

కరోనా వైరస్ మన పొరుగు దేశం చైనా నుంచి వ్యాపిస్తే..H1N1 వైరస్ ఐరోపా నుంచి సంక్రమించింది. మొదటి ప్రపంచ యుద్ధం ముగిసే సమయానికి సైనిక ఆసుపత్రులలో ఇది సంభవించింది. ఇది ఎలా ఉద్భవించిందో తెలియదు కాని చంపేసిన పక్షులు, జంతువుల నుంచి సైన్యానికి అంటుకుని ఉండ వచ్చు. కరోనా విషయంలో కూడా ఈ వాదనే ప్రచారంలో ఉండటం విశేషం. 1918 లో జర్మనీ లొంగిపోయి యుద్ధం ముగిసిన తరువాత బ్రిటిష్ సామ్రాజ్యం కోసం పోరాడిన భారత రెజిమెంట్లు బొంబాయికి తిరిగి వచ్చారు. విదేశాల నుండి వచ్చిన వారు కరోనా వైరస్ ని తీసుకువచ్చినట్లే అప్పటి సైన్యం H1N1 వైరస్ ని వెంటబెట్టుకు వచ్చారు.

అమెరికాతో సహా అనేక ప్రపంచ దేశాలు యుద్ధంలో పాల్గొన్నాయి. దాంతో పాటే ఈ వ్యాధిని ప్రపంచవ్యాప్తంగా విస్తరించారు. అప్పట్లో ప్రపంచ జనాభాలో 25% మందికి సోకినట్లు భావిస్తున్నారు .. వారిలో బహుశా 10% మంది మరణించారు.

ఈ వైరస్ ప్రాణాంతకమైనది.. రెండింటిలోనూ మరణాల రేటు ఎక్కువే. ప్రస్తుతం కరోనా వైరస్ బారినపడి చనిపోయిన వారి సంఖ్య కోటికి చేరువలో ఉంది. అయితే కరోనా విషయంలో భారతదేశానికి గల ఒకే ఒక సానుకూల అంశం మరణాల రేటు తక్కువగా ఉండటం..అలాగే కోలుకునే వారి సంఖ్య ఎక్కువగా ఉండటం. అయితే ఇది ఎంత కాలం ఈ పరిస్థితి ఉంటుందో చూడాలి.

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